Career prospects
Another day, another interview. Not complaining – I remember my impatience when I started in Shelter about the fact that it was close on six months before we got any mainstream media coverage. And with the repossessions crisis gathering pace and house prices taking a nose-dive, it would be a worry if we were not getting our share of air-time.
But it does feel all a little bit irrelevant to the real issues out there. I spent last Friday in a school hall in Penzance at a meeting of local young people grappling with the reality of the fact that few of them had immediate prospect of being able to afford to buy or rent a home in the local area. For them, arcane debates about how to avoid losing your home or when was the right time for a first-time buyer to enter the housing market were simply irrelevant. Even if prices tumble by the predicted 25-35%, on the wages they are likely to be able to command in Cornwall, where the average annual pay is just some £16,000 and house prices are inflated by the influx of retirees, home ownership will still be well out of reach. And the rental market was warped by the annual influx of holidaymakers looking for one week or two week lets.
Which is why, despite my sympathy for the position of people at risk of repossessions, our priority has to be on maintaining supply. At a speaking event last week, I was venting my concern that housing starts may fall well below 100,000 this year, almost half of the intended figure, when my pessimism was gazundered by someone from the housing industry, who predicted that starts next year would struggle to top 60,000.
Even with reduced divorce rates and inward migration which are the natural results of recessions, demand for new houses will still be somewhere in the region of 240,000. And I can’t get out of my head the question about how old those young people I met will be when they eventually get access to an affordable home.
