Archive for August, 2008

Trial By Television

Tuesday, August 26th, 2008

To ITV’sThis Morning’ to do a live phone-in alongside their regular finance expert about mortgage repossessions.  I say live – well, to be honest, although the calls were live, we had actually been given the details of the cases beforehand so that we could prepare our ad-lib responses in advance.
 
Just at the moment, with repossessions getting so much air-time, the stories are getting all to familiar.  But there is something about having a phone call with people who are actually going through it all that makes the whole thing that much more real – even in the entirely artificial environment of a TV studio.  And chatting in the Green Room (as we media types say) with Maxine, another guest who had herself had her home repossessed some months ago but whom Shelter had helped get re-housed, was a further reminder of how devastating the experience can be.
 
But what struck me most was the shock and outrage of the presenters (Eamonn Holmes and his partner Ruth Langsford) about what was going on.  Let’s not forget – this is middle England television and if middle England is outraged, the Government should be seriously worried.  All the gossip is that Brown will be going out with a series of housing announcements early next month.  He had better make sure he includes some convincing answers to how the repossessions crisis can be countered.  If he was really brave he might even volunteer to face his public on the ‘This Morning’ sofa.

As I Walked Out One Midsummer Morning

Monday, August 18th, 2008

Sometimes it is impossible to get away.  Wandering along the Regent’s Canal with my son on Saturday, for once work-free and lost in the tedious intricacies of Pokemon (God rot the soul of whatever evil genius dreamed up that way to ensnare and obsess the average eight year-old boy), I became peripherally aware of an earnest debate between two fishermen beside us.  The topic: the equally intricate – and to the average adult scarcely less tedious - world of housing law.
 
I slowed to listen.  One of the speakers was fresh from a recent encounter with his local homeless persons unit, where he had gone with a woman and child fleeing domestic violence only to be told that she had been found intentionally homeless.  The other was nodding wisely: he himself had been told the same when he had gone there, having chosen not to move to Clacton with his parents (he would have lost his job if he had).    They shook their heads with weary resignation and got back to the more serious business of trawling the polluted waters of North London.
 
Perhaps if my son had not been tugging at my sleeve and urging me on, I may have avoided ‘fessing up to earwigging and offering Shelter’s help.  Fortunately, it was received in the spirit in which it was offered.  But ten minutes later, when we parted, my son was still puzzled.  “So where is that woman going to live now?” he asked, “and what will happen to her child?”  Explaining to a small boy that Pokemon characters are not real is one thing.  Explaining why in our society it is OK for a local authority to wash its hands of a desperate mother and child is something else again.

Hold on to your seats

Friday, August 15th, 2008

More stats out indicating that the rise in repossessions is gathering pace.  According to the Ministry of Justice, the number of court actions is up 24% compared with the same period last year.  It looks likely that the Council for Mortgage Lenders’ prediction of 45,000 repossessions this year may now be exceeded.
 
But what worries me is as much next year as this.  A few months ago, I was berated by some of the lenders at a meeting with Ministers for being too gloomy about the medium-term future.  On Tuesday, I was a speaker at a round-table with David Cameron and the Tory front bench with many of the same people and listened to other speakers arguing that the economic malaise will be deeper and more prolonged that people think.  It is always satisfying to be proved right, but you can’t take much pleasure in a huge escalation in human misery.
 
Because a further tightening of the economy means just that.  The repossessions now are largely the result of the direct impact of the credit crunch on mortgage costs and other types of borrowing.  The simple hikes in interest rates and the slow down in the mortgage market have been enough to tip many delicately-poised household finances into the negative.  Those are the households who are forming the basis of the statistics out today.
 
But what is now being postulated for the next year or more is very different.  We have already seen the sharp rise in fuel and food, which are feeding through into a general rise in inflation.  If that is matched by a reduction in real wage levels and unemployment – which is pretty much inevitable, I fear – the repossessions crisis will take on a darker and more serious shape.  Hold onto your seats – we are in for a bumpy ride.


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